Krugman, in a recent post, mentions a recent study comparing the accuracy of various pundits . Conclusion: Our findings seem to agree with Tetlock’s research. Some studies suggest that conservatives have more rigid ideologies (Jost et al., 2003) In other words, they would be considered “hedgehogs.” Similarly, lawyers are taught to argue one side with a single analytical method; they, too, would be “hedgehogs” under Tetlock’s model. While not all liberals are foxes and not all conservatives are hedgehogs, these trends may be informative in explaining why our results are as they are. It may be that conservatives are inherently disadvantaged as prognosticators due to their ideological “hedgehoginess.” Perhaps most importantly, being a good prognosticator seems to be a product of choices, not birth. Anyone can be good; all they need to do is avoid law school and buy into liberalism as an overarching philosophy. There is no inferior ability associated with being born, say, black or fem
A Prediction Diary