Foxes and Hedgehogs

Before creating this site, I had searched for a site that I had used that allowed individuals to predict the likelihood of numerous events, and would provide a 'wisdom of crowds' calculations. When I first signed up, and put in predictions on the likelihood for (1) proof of God and (2) the US attacking Korea, both of which I place at .02 and .10, respectively. No great feat to get these correct though although the Korean estimate might change if Kim-Jong Il falls; I've read that the US and China are making plans to rush in and take over. A pressing concern for myself and the much of the US population is the likelihood of a recession. With so much negativity in the business world, subprime fiascos, potential monoline failures, the war in Iraq, increasing consumer defaults/bankruptcies, and a reduction in consumer spending portends a recession. I don't know whether there is much of an upside, other than increased exports because of the weak US dollar. I'd give th...

As for topics, the following are the most immediate: Likelihood of a US recession Likelihood of an international recession and/or impact Democratic primary winner (between Obama and Hillary) Republican primary winner (it seems forgone that it will be McCain) Military action against Iran Military action against Korea There are many other potential ideas or topics, centered around national and international politics, as well as economic outcomes, and I will aim to take shots at interesting and complex questions, not just the easy ones.