I've read lots of stuff about possible outcomes, but some seem most plausible: GDP loss of 2% Business loss to EU as trade is tougher, but maybe better for northern-based old school trade Loss of some businesses that will partially relocate to the EU, e.g., finance and technology Commentary from Krugman, whom I trust: The straight economics is clear: Brexit would make Britain poorer. It wouldn’t necessarily lead to a trade war, but it would definitely hurt British trade with the rest of Europe, reducing productivity and incomes. My rough calculations, which are in line with other estimates, suggest that Britain would end up about two percent poorer than it would otherwise be, essentially forever. That’s a big hit. London and southeast England would be hit hard, but Brexit would probably mean a weaker pound, which might actually help some of the old manufacturing regions of the north. My own take on possible sociopolitical outcomes: Reduction in immigration Alth
A Prediction Diary