Skip to main content

The Effects of Brexit

I've read lots of stuff about possible outcomes, but some seem most plausible:
  • GDP loss of 2%
  • Business loss to EU as trade is tougher, but maybe better for northern-based old school trade
  • Loss of some businesses that will partially relocate to the EU, e.g., finance and technology
Commentary from Krugman, whom I trust:
The straight economics is clear: Brexit would make Britain poorer. It wouldn’t necessarily lead to a trade war, but it would definitely hurt British trade with the rest of Europe, reducing productivity and incomes. My rough calculations, which are in line with other estimates, suggest that Britain would end up about two percent poorer than it would otherwise be, essentially forever. That’s a big hit.

London and southeast England would be hit hard, but Brexit would probably mean a weaker pound, which might actually help some of the old manufacturing regions of the north.
My own take on possible sociopolitical outcomes:
  • Reduction in immigration
  • Although the ruling elite might change, it is more likely a further swing to the right, as UK will be less under the influence of civilizing EU
  • Increased anti-immigrant sentiment and laws
  • Reduced ability to travel and work in EU for UK youth
Again, commentary from Krugman:
And that’s where Boris Johnson’s tirade against President Obama is so wonderfully clarifying. It tells us who the anti-EU wing of the Conservatives really are; it tells us not just that they are pretty close to UKIP, but that intellectually and emotionally they live in the same fever swamps as the American right. And they would, all too probably, take on a strong, even dominant role in British politics post-Brexit.
Another, easy to digest take...

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Some Simple Guesses...

Before creating this site, I had searched for a site that I had used that allowed individuals to predict the likelihood of numerous events, and would provide a 'wisdom of crowds' calculations. When I first signed up, and put in predictions on the likelihood for (1) proof of God and (2) the US attacking Korea, both of which I place at .02 and .10, respectively. No great feat to get these correct though although the Korean estimate might change if Kim-Jong Il falls; I've read that the US and China are making plans to rush in and take over. A pressing concern for myself and the much of the US population is the likelihood of a recession. With so much negativity in the business world, subprime fiascos, potential monoline failures, the war in Iraq, increasing consumer defaults/bankruptcies, and a reduction in consumer spending portends a recession. I don't know whether there is much of an upside, other than increased exports because of the weak US dollar. I'd give th...
Post a Comment
Read more

Foregone Conclusion

I haven't recently written here about the recession, but it seems like there is an seeming consensus that there will be, or currently is, a recession, and that it will long-lasting. No predictions on my part...
Post a Comment
Read more

Why Amazon Is Caught in an Unexpected Brawl in New York

#1 I was surprised that less affluent groups and minorities were for Amazon coming to NYC, although I was aware that locals in my area would be in favor. I live in Murray Hill, and it has a large number of software developers, in number and percentage, in Manhattan, and many - most? - people in our zip code earn in the six figures. I've worked as a software developer for over 15 years, and have occasionally been contacted by Amazon for my skills, although I would not put too much on this as I am always being contacted by recruiters, much of worthless. Although I am likely to benefit from Amazon coming to NYC, I am not a fan of the deal in its current incarnation. It takes too much money from our coffers, circumvents city governance, will place a large burden on existing resources, and will drive up costs for many New York residents. It seems the biggest boosters would be the real estate industry, along with anyone that might be able to profit from selling to the behemoth... h...
Post a Comment
Read more