Some Simple Guesses...

Before creating this site, I had searched for a site that I had used that allowed individuals to predict the likelihood of numerous events, and would provide a 'wisdom of crowds' calculations. When I first signed up, and put in predictions on the likelihood for (1) proof of God and (2) the US attacking Korea, both of which I place at .02 and .10, respectively. No great feat to get these correct though although the Korean estimate might change if Kim-Jong Il falls; I've read that the US and China are making plans to rush in and take over.

A pressing concern for myself and the much of the US population is the likelihood of a recession. With so much negativity in the business world, subprime fiascos, potential monoline failures, the war in Iraq, increasing consumer defaults/bankruptcies, and a reduction in consumer spending portends a recession. I don't know whether there is much of an upside, other than increased exports because of the weak US dollar. I'd give the likelihood of a recession .60 with a general belief that it started in this quarter, 2008 Q1.

Comments

Review - The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies

The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies by Scott E. Page My rating: 4 of 5 stars Generally, I found the book most engaging for understanding perception, heuristics and decision making, although this did not seem to be the primary premise of the book. As for the writing, it was a bit long-winded, using analogies to make points, even though the concepts themselves are readily accessible without elucidation. As to its purported focus, it provides academic, empirical, and statistical support for diversity, not necessarily racial or ethnic, with the premise being that diversity of viewpoint within groups is powerful, so much so that it trumps individual excellence. View all my reviews

In Amazon Fight, Progressives Showed What They Want: A New Economic Agenda

In the end, the failure of this deal lays at the feet of Cuomo and De Blasio. It's a deal that should have never been made or should have been done in a way that wasn't filled with one-sided giveaways. As Amy Liu, vice president and director of the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution, describes, Virginia worked with local constituents to address concerns, negotiated a deal that required jobs from Amazon in exchange for incentives, and put more money into developing an education-focused job pipeline, rather than a simple giveaway to Amazon. Many people are going to blame a vocal minority for the failure when the problem was the deal itself. It could have been done to satisfy the critics, or at least mollify them, while still delivering for New York. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/16/business/amazon-economy-taxes.html?comments#permid=30664506

Happy New Year! May Your City Never Become San Francisco, New York or Seattle - Responses

#1 I'm a long-time New York resident, have watched the real estate market for years, and wonder about the cause and effect of high prices. My sense is that developers develop for the high-end because that is where the profits are. Not justifying the inequality, but over time, the only place to make major profits has been to either reduce costs at a huge scale, e.g., Amazon and Walmart, or to focus on smaller opportunities but aimed at the affluent, e.g., the luxury retail sector. Yes, it is not that simple, since cost is affected by regulations and taxation, but on its face, the high costs of developing in Manhattan, and maybe anywhere in NYC, force developers to focus on the luxury segment. At one time, significant government investment and support in affordable housing made it profitable for developers to build for average incomes, but much of that has been wiped away, along with other supports for the middle class over the past few decades, driving much of our inequality, th...

Foxes and Hedgehogs

Search This Blog