Foxes and Hedgehogs

Since it involves predictions about the Trump presidency, a post on another of my sites , I thought to report here: Trump might have made inflammatory statements about trade, from his cabinet choices it looks like a ploy to increase defense expenditures and oil profits. His hard-right appointees will unsettle regions, if not lead to all-out war, and doing so requires increases in defense, and a disrupted oil flow will increase the cost of oil that will increase Exxon's profit margin and turn US extraction profitable. Even his anti-terrorism slant would lead to profits in companies tied to Peter Thiel, Palantir. Expanding infrastructure and real estate deals, disguised as urban renewal, could also assist Trump, or at least enlarge his influence over the real estate world. You might be right in predicting he will increase tariffs, as well as foul trade in other ways, but most presidents tone down their rhetoric once they are in power. Unless Trump's business empire can benefit ...

I was noticing that the choice of an Exxon executive as Secretary of State meant the US was leaning towards becoming a petro-state, and mused about how war would increase Exxon's profits. Then, Rick Perry was suggested to head the Department of Energy. An idiot from an oil state heading a department usually tasked with concerns about defense, with significant control of nuclear resources. A loose prediction: Action: Voiding the Iran deal, and well as conflicts, or even outright military action, in the mideast. Action: Dismissal of most climate concerns, and the purging of staff in, and the ruination of, departments devoted to science and the environment, except as it serves the existing oil and military agendas Motive: Disrupting oil flows will increase the value of oil, which will lead to excess profits from refiners, and increased profitability of extraction companies in North America

Few people realize how much Blue states subsidize living in Red states, but I imagine it can only get worse, as the Republicans are only likely to transfer even more money for themselves and their constituency. What I'd expect to see: Even more money transferred from Blue states to Red states, through federal programs that disproportionately provide funds to conservative America, via infrastructure, defense, or police Support for male-dominated, aging industries, at the expense of female industries, e.g., education, health care and social agency, or at the expense of green technologies and high tech, except as it relates to defense and security-related concerns Tax offsets to infrastructure projects, transferring public assets to private developers for pennies on the dollar