Skip to main content

Iraq: Failed State or Fledgling Democracy?

I have always been against the Iraq War, and marched in some of the earlier demonstrations around NY, but my thinking about the war has changed over time. I was always concerned about the number of people that the war would kill, although not military personnel, but the indirect casualties of war, primarily women and children. I never thought, although I have wondered, a strong viable democracy would emerge.

The disconnected and nonsensical justifications always wrung hollow, and were obvious falsities presented to justify war. What I thought the drivers, in retrospect, both wrong and right:

  • Oil
  • increase in military expenditures
  • Warped concepts of security
  • Hubris

Later, I thought a collusion of business interests pushed for war. Over time, the drivers for war seemed to be less long-term and the more immediate land, money, and power grab: the need to ingratiate the military and its contractors, to obligate the US to long-term presence, and to access the countries oil reserves, as well as to inflate oil's price.

Based on what I believe to be the real drivers, the following are the most relevant questions:

  • Will Iraq become a viable democracy?
  • Will the US setup permanent bases in Iraq?
  • Will the multinationals maintain access to Iraqi oil?

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Why Amazon Is Caught in an Unexpected Brawl in New York

#1 I was surprised that less affluent groups and minorities were for Amazon coming to NYC, although I was aware that locals in my area would be in favor. I live in Murray Hill, and it has a large number of software developers, in number and percentage, in Manhattan, and many - most? - people in our zip code earn in the six figures. I've worked as a software developer for over 15 years, and have occasionally been contacted by Amazon for my skills, although I would not put too much on this as I am always being contacted by recruiters, much of worthless. Although I am likely to benefit from Amazon coming to NYC, I am not a fan of the deal in its current incarnation. It takes too much money from our coffers, circumvents city governance, will place a large burden on existing resources, and will drive up costs for many New York residents. It seems the biggest boosters would be the real estate industry, along with anyone that might be able to profit from selling to the behemoth... h...

Former Elections

In a post on another of my sites, a prediction of the 2004 election , I reprinted an email I sent to Brian Lehrer's show of my election prediction. I was wrong in multiple ways, not only because I was overly optimistic, hoping that American's would reject the Republican party, but also because I thought the turn away would be based on mass awareness of economic and social injustice. Even if I had been correct, the turning away I predicted would have likely been based on more concrete and less lofty reasons, since it seems that the Republicans' fall from grace seems more based on their inability to win a war, not the humanitarian crisis of the war itself.

Raison d'Etre (Reason for Being)

I recently picked up Philip Tetlock's Expert Political Judgment , an insightful analysis of expert opinion. Although there are many factors that might distinguish experts in the ability to predict outcomes, liberal versus conservative, intellectual depth and education, source material, etc., Tetlock found that the best predictor of forecasting accuracy was thinking like a fox, as opposed to the hedgehog, ala Isaiah Singer's essay. Fox thinking is nuanced and composed of many different themes, often conflicting, while hedgehogs tend to believe in one big, overarching idea. This site, and my expected use, is to document my own failures and successes in predicting political and economic futures. The title, Elephant's Memory, alludes to the fox-like tendency, maybe even need, to remember one's own flawed predictions and adjust future reasoning accordingly.