Iraq: Failed State or Fledgling Democracy?

I have always been against the Iraq War, and marched in some of the earlier demonstrations around NY, but my thinking about the war has changed over time. I was always concerned about the number of people that the war would kill, although not military personnel, but the indirect casualties of war, primarily women and children. I never thought, although I have wondered, a strong viable democracy would emerge.

The disconnected and nonsensical justifications always wrung hollow, and were obvious falsities presented to justify war. What I thought the drivers, in retrospect, both wrong and right:

Oil
increase in military expenditures
Warped concepts of security
Hubris

Later, I thought a collusion of business interests pushed for war. Over time, the drivers for war seemed to be less long-term and the more immediate land, money, and power grab: the need to ingratiate the military and its contractors, to obligate the US to long-term presence, and to access the countries oil reserves, as well as to inflate oil's price.

Based on what I believe to be the real drivers, the following are the most relevant questions:

Will Iraq become a viable democracy?
Will the US setup permanent bases in Iraq?
Will the multinationals maintain access to Iraqi oil?

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