This morning, I read Volcker's editorial in the NY Times, and with the reforms he thinks of putting in place - he advocates more control over banks than most of those with any say - the banks "would be free to to innovate, to trade, to speculate, to manage private pools of capital...". My sense is that trading can't go backwards, and that the use derivatives and securitization will continue unabated, albeit correlated with ups and downs in market activity.
Before creating this site, I had searched for a site that I had used that allowed individuals to predict the likelihood of numerous events, and would provide a 'wisdom of crowds' calculations. When I first signed up, and put in predictions on the likelihood for (1) proof of God and (2) the US attacking Korea, both of which I place at .02 and .10, respectively. No great feat to get these correct though although the Korean estimate might change if Kim-Jong Il falls; I've read that the US and China are making plans to rush in and take over. A pressing concern for myself and the much of the US population is the likelihood of a recession. With so much negativity in the business world, subprime fiascos, potential monoline failures, the war in Iraq, increasing consumer defaults/bankruptcies, and a reduction in consumer spending portends a recession. I don't know whether there is much of an upside, other than increased exports because of the weak US dollar. I'd give th...
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