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Some Thoughts on the Effect of Trump

I think this is pretty straightforward, as these are the typical agenda items to conservatives, items that are likely to change under Trump, considering Republican control of Congress, and now that some sensible things that would have been done by Democrats would be usurped, like deficit and infrastructure spending:

  1. Reduced regulation and oversight of finance, health care
  2. Reduced oversight of the business environment and monopoly control
  3. Reduced tax collection and oversight
  4. Increased spending for defense
  5. Reduced social welfare spending
  6. Reduced oversight and intervention in bias-related areas
  7. Pullback from climate agreements and initiatives

My general feeling is that the Republican regime will be good for business in the short-term, but bad for people in both the short and long term:

  • Stock market exuberance, but increased risk of market crashes and bubbles
  • Deficits, with corresponding cuts to social welfare to compensate
  • Increase in inflation, which can have positive effects on the economy
  • Higher costs for consumers, increases to inequality
  • Increased corporate control of media messages toward Republican sentiment
  • Increased discrimination, hate crime incidents
  • Increased mortality among African-Americans, Hispanics and women
  • Not just increased pollution, which will contribute to mortality and disease, but general savaging the environment
  • Increased likelihood of international incidents, instigating conflicts with Iran, the Middle East, and Latin America

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