Skip to main content

Trump, Tax Cuts, and the Decline of US Welfare

Although the most common narrative in the major press focuses on its immediate effects on income, what do I think is likely to happen, outside of the common narrative:
  • A return to faux fiscal hawkishness to justify cuts to social welfare spending
  • Additional cuts to federal worker wages and benefits
  • Additional reductions in oversight justified as an effort to restrain waste and expenditures
  • Tax collection efforts will falter, as the IRS suffers resource constraints and people game the system for maximum benefit
  • Even more disingenuous and corrupt behavior from politicians, since they've finally ruined the ACA...
  • Reductions in longevity, employee safety, environmental health, maternal welfare, and educational outcomes - There are multiple factors at play, and some aspects like longevity might improve if the country can get a handle on opioid addiction - although rather than outright reversion, one might see even slower improvements than in previous years

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

It Started With a Jolt: How New York Became a Tech Town

#1 When a city is dominated by one industry, particularly finance, that can spell ruin for its inhabitants. Good for the wealthy and the people in the industry, mediocre for many others. Tech might smooth things out a bit, but there is no reason we need to give anything to a behemoth for coming here. Many are already make NYC home. Although not the only one, NYC has some of the best universities, many top-tier companies, pools of talented people, and the best cultural amenities. There was no reason to kowtow to a behemoth to come here. NYC is big and innovative, and it will stay big and innovative for the foreseeable future. Tech was here before and will it be here after, without being dominated by a single company. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/22/technology/nyc-tech-startups.html?comments#permid=30741436 #2 Why we would we want to be a tech town or any kind of single-industry town? Why would we want to trade one harmful kind of industry, finance, for an equally bad indust...
Post a Comment
Read more

In Amazon Fight, Progressives Showed What They Want: A New Economic Agenda

In the end, the failure of this deal lays at the feet of Cuomo and De Blasio. It's a deal that should have never been made or should have been done in a way that wasn't filled with one-sided giveaways. As Amy Liu, vice president and director of the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution, describes, Virginia worked with local constituents to address concerns, negotiated a deal that required jobs from Amazon in exchange for incentives, and put more money into developing an education-focused job pipeline, rather than a simple giveaway to Amazon. Many people are going to blame a vocal minority for the failure when the problem was the deal itself. It could have been done to satisfy the critics, or at least mollify them, while still delivering for New York. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/16/business/amazon-economy-taxes.html?comments#permid=30664506
Post a Comment
Read more

Polls Show Government Shutdown Is Eroding Faith in Economy

It's obvious that much economic sentiment is simply political allegiance, although even that has some fact-based reasoning behind it. When Republicans harm Democratic-leaning states or focus on the industries of the Rust Belt, Democrats worry. Conversely, Republican worry when the newer industries common in Blue states are given prominence by Democrats. That said, little that Trump has done is good for the long-term welfare of the country, and much of the short-term benefits are really long-term losses, specifically, the reductions in taxes which will likely entail future belt-tightening, loosening of corporate regulation will lead to future costs for healthcare, environmental cleanup, and consumer debt. Rather than play the safe hand of trying to bring down an inflated market, Republicans instead chose to 'put out the fire with gasoline'. Eventually, there will be pain, suffering, and loss, but who will suffer, and by how much, is yet to be seen. As for outright ignorant...
Post a Comment
Read more