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Trump, Tax Cuts, and the Decline of US Welfare

Although the most common narrative in the major press focuses on its immediate effects on income, what do I think is likely to happen, outside of the common narrative:
  • A return to faux fiscal hawkishness to justify cuts to social welfare spending
  • Additional cuts to federal worker wages and benefits
  • Additional reductions in oversight justified as an effort to restrain waste and expenditures
  • Tax collection efforts will falter, as the IRS suffers resource constraints and people game the system for maximum benefit
  • Even more disingenuous and corrupt behavior from politicians, since they've finally ruined the ACA...
  • Reductions in longevity, employee safety, environmental health, maternal welfare, and educational outcomes - There are multiple factors at play, and some aspects like longevity might improve if the country can get a handle on opioid addiction - although rather than outright reversion, one might see even slower improvements than in previous years

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