Foxes and Hedgehogs

I've read lots of stuff about possible outcomes, but some seem most plausible: GDP loss of 2% Business loss to EU as trade is tougher, but maybe better for northern-based old school trade Loss of some businesses that will partially relocate to the EU, e.g., finance and technology Commentary from Krugman, whom I trust: The straight economics is clear: Brexit would make Britain poorer. It wouldn’t necessarily lead to a trade war, but it would definitely hurt British trade with the rest of Europe, reducing productivity and incomes. My rough calculations, which are in line with other estimates, suggest that Britain would end up about two percent poorer than it would otherwise be, essentially forever. That’s a big hit. London and southeast England would be hit hard, but Brexit would probably mean a weaker pound, which might actually help some of the old manufacturing regions of the north. My own take on possible sociopolitical outcomes: Reduction in immigration Alth...

Along the lines of Fed Follies - The New York Times , and acknowledging I might be responsive to the pressures of investors that want to raise rates, I believe that the recent rate rise will have little or no effect (50%), a negative effect (40%), or a positive effect (10%).

Along these lines, from a recent release, and supportive of your post: "Previous portraits of Davos delegates as uprooted jetsetters or global networkers easily overlook their influence on society. Our findings reveal that the forum actively shifts the burden for the solution of problems from governments and corporations to individual consumers, with significant personal and societal costs," the authors conclude. The release from Eurekalert

In response to a Krugman post : I remember when a Republican anti-tax lunk, after guessing I was a liberal, went after John Kerry in our conversation - I look like him - and later went after yourself [Krugman]. At the time, I said I had been reading Krugman for 10 years, and he has been right the whole time. Granted, even you are aware of your missteps, but on the whole, you have been prescient. I wrote this in 1999, after reading Depression Economics: As usual, Krugman highlights the problem with dogmatic approaches to economics. He also illuminates some aspects of our own concern about inflation. Rather than worry about inflation, our current economic and financial guardians might need to look more at the possibility of deflation created during an economic downturn when lack of demand meets excess capacity.

Inequality Reexamined by Amartya Sen My rating: 4 of 5 stars The most basic idea, that one person's equality is another's inequality, is explored in detail. Sen illuminates many of the flaws in standard economic thinking, and how the philosophical underpinnings of economics guide and distort economic reasoning. View all my reviews

Valuing Wall Street by Andrew Smithers My rating: 5 of 5 stars The material was simple enough to digest, and certainly believable. It also provided good insights on the real behavior of investors, i.e. most investors are not long-term investors and the perils of retiring during a down period. The book also provides a good benchmark for when to invest, although the fact that I rode the market up on its fallacious valuation has not harmed me, since I transferred my portfolio to bonds before the market started heading down. View all my reviews

The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies by Scott E. Page My rating: 4 of 5 stars Generally, I found the book most engaging for understanding perception, heuristics and decision making, although this did not seem to be the primary premise of the book. As for the writing, it was a bit long-winded, using analogies to make points, even though the concepts themselves are readily accessible without elucidation. As to its purported focus, it provides academic, empirical, and statistical support for diversity, not necessarily racial or ethnic, with the premise being that diversity of viewpoint within groups is powerful, so much so that it trumps individual excellence. View all my reviews